Study of the scenario of future electricity supply and demand

Background and circumstances to the establishment of the Investigation Committee

At the GX Implementation Council held in August 2022 (chaired by the Prime Minister), it was decided that the whole electrical power system shall be reinspected to ensure that the system contributes to the stable supply.
As a result, discussions were held regarding the methods to ensure the supply capacity by the Subcommittee on Electricity and Gas Basic Policy. Based on such discussions, a study group on future electricity supply and demand was established in April 2023.

At the study group meeting, we conducted an interview with the relevant companies regarding matters that could become issues from the perspective of securing a stable supply and the realization of carbon neutrality by 2050.

In August 2023, at the study group meeting, it was decided that in the future, the discussion forum shall be moved to the OCCTO, and the creation of a possible scenario of electricity supply and demand for more than ten years ahead shall be proceeded.
Consequently, because it is required that studies shall be proceeded while incorporating diverse perspectives, including insights from experts and external organizations for the creation of the scenario by the OCCTO, we established the Investigation Committee on the future scenario of electricity supply and demand balance, including experts as members in November 2023, and we are studying from the professional and versatile viewpoints.

Purpose of the scenario created by the Committee

The scenario created by the Investigation Committee will be shared among the relevant parties, including the government, the OCCTO, and the relevant companies, for use as a reference for smooth implementation of the long-term decarbonized capacity auction or planned development of power sources.
Since the scenario created by the Investigation Committee has a different purpose from purposes of the strategic energy plan created by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the electricity supply plan aggregated and created separately by the OCCTO, or the master plan of cross-regional interconnected grids, the scenario is studied without necessarily assuming alignment with these plans.

Timelines, areas, and specificity of the scenario creation

We forecast the demand and the supply capacity respectively with a certain flexibility and present the supply-demand balance (kW・kWh) across the nation in 2040 and 2050 as multiple scenarios in combination with such forecasts.