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Demand forecast across the country and of each supply area

For probabilistic demand forecasting

From the perspective of a medium-term demand forecast that becomes a starting point for the supply plan, the capacity market, and other schemes, we forecast electricity demand for ten years into the future through regression analyses of the actual electricity demand in the past and the economic indicators (population, GDP, IPP, etc.) having an effect on the actual demand.
We create and publish the national demand forecast by compiling the demand forecast of each supply area submitted by general power transmission and distribution companies every January.

Reflection of individual circumstances and regional characteristics of supply areas

In the demand forecast guidelines, it is prescribed that general power transmission and distribution companies shall take regional characteristics, trends of individual consumers, and other matters into account, if necessary, when forecasting the demand for their supply areas. We check whether the companies properly take such matters into account.

Key points to be reflected on the 2025 demand forecast

  • Self-consumption of residential solar power generation (all supply areas)
  • Effects of power saving and energy conservation (all supply areas)
  • Holding of Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai, Japan (Kansai)
  • Results of questionnaire for individual consumers (production trend, trend of self-power generation, etc.) (Hokuriku, Chugoku, and Okinawa)
  • New installment and expansion of data centers and semiconductor plants (Hokkaido, Tohoku, Tokyo, Chubu, Kansai, Chugoku, and Kyushu)
  • Noto Peninsula Earthquake (Hokuriku)
  • Electric power for station operation during suspension of power plants (supply areas except for Okinawa)